New Zealand Election: Any Bloc Wins a Majority?

Rules · Market background

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of more than half of the seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election: (a) Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori; or (b) National, ACT, and New Zealand First. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the New Zealand House of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

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